The 2024 presidential election marked a return to power for Republicans in Washington, D.C. Donald Trump was elected president, and the GOP regained control of the Senate while maintaining leadership in the House of Representatives. With a unified government, Republican leaders are positioned to advance their legislative agenda, signaling a significant shift in the nation’s political landscape.
What does the GOP’s return to power mean for the electronic and physical security industry? The Security Industry Association (SIA) Government Relations Committee explored this question in depth, culminating in the release of its new report, 2024 Post-Election Recap: Security Industry Outlook.
Once leadership elections in the House and Senate are finalized, both parties will focus on assigning committee and subcommittee chairs and ranking members — key positions that will shape the policy details of upcoming legislation. Below are some leaders and issues the security industry should watch closely in the 119th Congress, as explained in SIA’s post-election recap.
Government Funding
The House and Senate Appropriations Committees are responsible for all discretionary (i.e., annual, congressionally determined) government spending. While programs can be authorized through their committees of jurisdiction, they will not be funded until they receive appropriations, most often through the annual funding process that keeps the government open each year.
Major leadership changes are not expected for these committees, as Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) will keep his spot as chair and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) will remain ranking member in the House. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) will take over the chair position, swapping with Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), who will move to ranking member in the Senate.
With the current measure providing fiscal 2024 government funding set to expire on Dec. 20, one of the main priorities for Republicans in the lame duck session will be to determine whether they should cut a deal on appropriations in the 118th Congress, freeing up their legislative schedule to focus on the Trump administration’s first 100 days or pass a short-term continuing resolution (CR) into the new year and make their preferred adjustments to spending once they have control of both chambers. If a short-term CR is passed, it will likely extend the government funding deadline into March 2025 so the new Congress has time to cut a deal. Look to these bills throughout the year for the GOP spending priorities. Any cuts to agency budgets, funding for grant programs to procure security equipment or reporting requirements on hot-button issues like the border will happen on this legislation.
Tax Cuts
The biggest legislative priority once President-elect Trump takes office will be an extension and revision of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which contains many of the tax priorities of his first administration. Many of the provisions of this current U.S. tax structure will expire in 2025 without further action.
The U.S. Constitution requires that all bills regarding taxation must originate in the House of Representatives. The Committee of Ways and Means, the chief tax-writing committee in the House, will remain under the leadership of Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) as chair and Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) as ranking member. The bill will then move to the Senate Finance Committee, led by Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). Sen. Wyden and Rep. Smith were joint authors of a bipartisan, bicameral tax bill that they attempted to move through Congress throughout much of 2024. Now that the balance of power in Washington has shifted, Sen. Crapo will be at the helm in the Senate, and both chambers will have a chance to write the legislation from a more GOP-leaning perspective, as they use the budget reconciliation process (which requires only a simple majority) to avoid a Democratic filibuster.
For security firms, the tax policy changes and extensions likely in 2025 will skew towards Republican policy proposals, which means the corporate tax rate will remain at 21% or lower, the research and development tax credit could be revived and extended and bonus depreciation that allows businesses to write off 100% of the cost of security improvements to their facilities could be reinstated – all policies important to security manufacturers and integrators large and small.
Border Security
Immigration has long been the cornerstone of President-elect Trump’s platform, and the transition team has indicated that this will be among the top priorities for his first 100 days. As border security initiatives move front and center once again, there will be a growing demand for physical and technological solutions for ports of entry and situational awareness along the border.
With the House Homeland Security Committee set to be led by Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) as chair and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) as ranking member and the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee to remain under the leadership of Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), expect Republicans Green and Paul to helm sweeping border security measures. This will include funding for a border wall and more money to Customs and Border Patrol agents that lawmakers will attempt to tack on to the budget reconciliation process. Policies and reforms that go beyond having a budgetary or revenue impact may be tempered by the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold. Firms that offer border security solutions should keep an eye on the budget process, as that could unlock more funding for key programs.
Things to Keep an Eye On
The Trump campaign has kept a consistent emphasis on the implementation of tariffs. As it becomes clearer how these campaign promises turn into concrete policies, this could have a significant effect on sectors like the security industry, which depends on global supply chains for electronic or other manufactured items. There is also likely to be another revival of measures targeted specifically towards Chinese-made products.
Meanwhile, expect GOP efforts to reduce the budget deficit with cuts to agencies that have been identified to be on the chopping block by the new Department of Government Efficiency, such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. While the newly created office is unlikely to have unilateral power to slash funding, these are programs that could be targeted by congressional Republicans when they seek to balance the budget. On the other hand, we could see funding and resources increase for law enforcement, school security improvements and crime reduction programs, as these have been identified as priorities throughout the Trump campaign.
State-Level Implications
With less focus on certain issues in the new Congress, state legislatures are expected to take the lead on topics like artificial intelligence (AI) and data privacy, which impact the security industry. SIA plans to advocate for the industry’s policy priorities in state-level sessions in 2025. For further insights, refer to the association’s recap of 2024 state legislative developments (members only).